Prediction of Mortality After ALPPS Stage-1
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify predictors of 90-day mortality after Associating Liver Partition and Portal Vein Ligation for Staged Hepatectomy (ALPPS), available after stage-1, either to omit or delay stage-2. BACKGROUND DATA: ALPPS is a two-stage hepatectomy for patients with extensive liver tumors with predicted small liver remnants, which has been criticized for its high mortality rate. Risk factors for mortality are unknown. METHODS: Patients in the International Registry undergoing ALPPS from April 2011 to July 2014 were analyzed. Primary outcome was 90-day mortality. Liver function after stage-1 was assessed using the criteria of the International Study Group for Liver Surgery (ISGLS) after stage-1 among others. A multivariable model was used to identify independent predictors of 90-day mortality. RESULTS: Three hundred twenty patients registered by 55 centers worldwide were evaluated. Overall 90-day mortality was 8.8% (28/320). The predominant cause for 90-day mortality was postoperative liver failure in 75% of patients. Fourteen percent of patients developed liver failure according to ISGLS criteria already after stage-1 ALPPS. Those and patients with a model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score more than 10 before stage-2 were at significantly higher risk for 90-day mortality after stage-2 with an odds ratio (OR) 3.9 [confidence interval (CI) 1.4-10.9, P = 0.01] and OR 4.9 (CI 1.9-12.7, P = 0.006), respectively. Other factors, such as size of future liver remnant (FLR) before stage-2 and time between stages, were not predictive. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of the largest cohort of ALPPS patients so far identifies those patients in whom stage-2 ALPPS surgery should be delayed or even denied. These findings may help to make ALPPS safer.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it