Direct injection of water vapor into the stratosphere by volcanic eruptions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract While theoretical studies show that water vapor (WV) can be directly injected into the stratosphere during a volcanic eruption, few observations of such a phenomenon exist. The Microwave Limb Sounder observed stratospheric injection of WV following the 2015 Calbuco eruption. Lower stratospheric mixing ratios exceeded 10 ppmv for a few days downwind of the injection location. Plume transport is confirmed by back trajectory modeling. Due to the short duration and limited spatial extent of the enhancement, climatic impact is expected to be negligible. This letter provides spatiotemporal analysis of a volcanogenic pulse of lower stratospheric WV as it dispersed. The inferred mass of stratospheric WV from this eruption of 2 megaton (Mt) and the rapid evanescence of the enhancement are similar to what has been observed for other eruptions, suggesting that injection by moderately explosive eruptions is not an effective mechanism for large‐scale stratospheric hydration.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".