Causal Correlation between Exchange Rate and Stock Index: Evidence from VN-Index
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper will examine the causal correlation of exchange rates and stock prices in Vietnam. The data is collected daily from March 1st 2007 to March 1st 2014. The whole sample period is divided into two sub-groups as before the stock market bottom, after stock market bottom and full sample period. Unit root tests are employed for checking the stationary of time series data such as ADF test, PP test and KPSS test. This paper employs the co-integration test and Granger causality test to identify the causal correlation between two variables. The results of paper prove that there is no causal correlation between exchange rate and stock price. It means that the stock price has no effect on exchange rate and vice versa. However, after stock market bottom from February 25th 2009 to March 1st 2014, this research finds that it has a long-run co-movement between these variables by applying the Johansen test.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".