US Growth Deficit: Too Loose, Too Long
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This chapter explains how the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) latest July 2014 update downgraded its forecasts for the global economy, which will now expand by 3.4 percent in 2014, down from 3.7 percent made in April 2014. Advanced economies (AEs) continue to struggle to return to normalcy five years after the financial crisis. The Fed had since slashed US growth to 2.2 percent for 2014, down from nearly 3 percent in March. The move reflected revision to the 1 percent contraction in the first quarter of 2014, which has since turned even worse with the July revision. So it is not surprising that the IMF now cuts US gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 1.7 percent. Technological shifts and globalization have left many US workers unfit for high-skilled jobs of the twenty-first century.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.010 | 0.009 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.024 | 0.008 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".