The social dimension of belief in conspiracy theories
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Belief in conspiracy theories is a widespread societal phenomenon. For instance, in 2004, according to a Zogby International poll, 49% of New York City residents believed that the US government knew in advance that the 9/11 terrorist strikes were coming and consciously failed to act. Moreover, 22% of Canadian citizens in 2006 believed that Al-Qaeda had little or nothing to do with the 9/11 terrorist strikes (for details, see Sunstein and Vermeule, 2009). Likewise, in 1963 about two-thirds of US citizens believed in a conspiracy theory regarding the John F. Kennedy assassination, a figure that was still as high as 56% in 1991 (Pipes, 1997, p. 15). These statistics underscore that belief in conspiracy theories is not a trivial phenomenon that is exclusive to a few pathological individuals, but instead deserves the serious research attention of the social sciences (see also Robins and Post, 1999). In the present contribution, we define belief in conspiracy theories as explanatory beliefs about a number of actors who join together in secret agreement, and try to achieve a hidden goal which is perceived as unlawful or malevolent (Zonis and Joseph, 1994, pp. 448–9). One of the main research findings on this phenomenon is that conspiracy beliefs are monological in nature: One conspiracy theory reinforces other conspirational ideas, making individuals who believe in one conspiracy theory more likely to also believe in other conspiracy theories (Goertzel, 1994; Lewandowski, Oberauer, and Gignac, 2013; Swami, Coles, Stieger <italic>et al</italic>., 2011). A recent study reveals that this monological belief system even applies to conspiracy theories that are mutually exclusive: For instance, beliefs that Princess Diana staged her own death are positively correlated with beliefs that Princess Diana was assassinated (Wood, Douglas, and Sutton, 2012).
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it