The impact of delayed biliary decompression and anti‐microbial therapy in 260 patients with cholangitis‐associated septic shock
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Cholangitis-associated septic shock carries significant mortality. There is uncertainty regarding the most appropriate time to achieve biliary decompression. AIM: To determine whether the timing of biliary decompression and anti-microbial therapy affect the survival in cholangitis patients with septic shock. METHODS: Nested retrospective cohort study of all cholangitis-associated septic shock patients (hypotension requiring vasopressors) from an international, multi-centre database between 1996 and 2011. RESULTS: Among 260 patients (mean age 69 years, 57% male), overall mortality was 37%. Compared to nonsurvivors (n = 96), survivors (n = 164) had lower mean admission Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II (22 vs. 28, P < 0.001) and lower median serum lactate on admission (3.4 vs. 4.6 mmol/L, P < 0.001). Survivors were more likely to receive appropriate anti-microbial therapy earlier (median 2.6 vs. 6.8 h from shock, P < 0.001). Survivors were also more likely to undergo successful biliary decompression earlier (median 8.8 vs. 22 h, P < 0.001). After adjusting for co-variates, APACHE II (odds ratio, OR 1.21 per increment (1.11-1.32), time delay to appropriate anti-microbial therapy [OR 1.15 per hour (1.07-1.25)] and delayed biliary decompression >12 h [OR 3.40 (1.12-10.31)] were all significantly associated with increased mortality (P < 0.04 for all; c-statistic 0.896). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with septic shock secondary to acute cholangitis have significant mortality. Endoscopic biliary decompression >12 h after the onset of shock and delayed receipt of appropriate anti-microbial therapy were both significantly associated with adverse hospital outcome. This might suggest that early initiation of anti-microbial therapy and urgent biliary decompression (within 12 h) could potentially improve outcomes in this high-risk patient population.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it