Forecasting the Large Quarter Price Moves
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Quarters Theory establishes a set of two simple rules to identify signs of strength or weakness in the price behavior of currency exchange rates in the vicinity of each Large Quarter Point that may signal unsuccessful Large Quarter Transitions. The Quarters Theory recognizes that Large Quarter Transitions do not guarantee the successful completion of a Large Quarter and that price behavior of currency exchange rates within the actual Large Quarters should be closely analyzed for signs of strength that could lead to the successful completion of a Large Quarter, or signs of weakness and exhaustion that may cause unsuccessful Large Quarter completion and reversals back toward the preceding Large Quarter Point. To monitor the price behavior of currency exchange rates within the range of each Large Quarter, the Quarters Theory establishes three important price levels within each Large Quarter: (1) the End of the Hesitation Zone, (2) the Half Point, and (3) the Whole Number preceding a Large Quarter Point. These three important price points within each Large Quarter serve as major support and resistance levels that may prevent further price progression and may cause unsuccessful completion of a Large Quarter.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".