Dormant comets among the near-Earth object population: a meteor-based survey
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Dormant comets in the near-Earth object (NEO) population are thought to be involved in the terrestrial accretion of water and organic materials. Identification of dormant comets is difficult as they are observationally indistinguishable from their asteroidal counterparts, however, they may have produced dust during their final active stages which potentially are detectable today as weak meteor showers at the Earth. Here we present the result of a reconnaissance survey looking for dormant comets using 13 567 542 meteor orbits measured by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). We simulate the dynamical evolution of the hypothetical meteoroid streams originated from 407 near-Earth asteroids in cometary orbits that resemble orbital characteristics of Jupiter-family comets (JFCs). Out of the 44 hypothetical showers that are predicted to be detectable by CMOR, we identify five positive detections that are statistically unlikely to be chance associations, including three previously known associations. This translates to a lower limit to the dormant comet fraction of 2.0 ± 1.7 per cent in the NEO population and a dormancy rate of ∼10−5 yr−1 per comet. The low dormancy rate confirms disruption and dynamical removal as the dominant end state for near-Earth JFCs. We also predict the existence of a significant number of meteoroid streams whose parents have already been disrupted or dynamically removed.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".