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Denominator fallacy revisited

2016· article· en· W2490001839 on OpenAlexaff
Mayank Goyal, Ashutosh P. Jadhav

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of NeuroInterventional Surgery · 2016
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicAcute Ischemic Stroke Management
Canadian institutionsUniversity of CalgaryFoothills Medical Centre
Fundersnot available
KeywordsFallacyMedicineModified Rankin ScaleStroke (engine)PopulationSet (abstract data type)Outcome (game theory)Ischemic strokeCardiologyMathematical economicsEpistemology

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

We have previously written about ‘denominator fallacy’ and its importance in the way that we report and interpret results, especially for endovascular treatment of acute stroke.1 In most studies, the number of patients going for endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) is taken as the denominator and the number of these patients achieving a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) of 0–2 as the numerator. The number of patients taken for EVT is dependent on the overall set-up, the view of the interventionalists, economic considerations (in some jurisdictions), imaging criteria, and clinical criteria. Of these, imaging criteria probably play a key role: the more stringent the imaging criteria (taking only patients with a very small core, etc), the smaller the number of patients who will go for EVT and the higher the likelihood of good clinical outcome (as a percentage of patients undergoing EVT). However, the more stringent the criteria, the smaller the overall impact of the treatment on the population as a whole. I used examples to illustrate this concept in a previous editorial. However, let us take this line of reasoning a step further. We know that time is brain and that infarcts grow during the hyperacute phase. At time zero after onset of symptoms, the size of the infarct core is zero. At 24 hours after onset, most infarcts are fully grown. …

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.458
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.032
GPT teacher head0.286
Teacher spread0.254 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations16
Published2016
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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