Phosphate-Binding Agents in Adults With CKD: A Network Meta-analysis of Randomized Trials
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BackgroundGuidelines preferentially recommend noncalcium phosphate binders in adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We compare and rank phosphate-binder strategies for CKD.Study DesignNetwork meta-analysis.Setting & PopulationAdults with CKD.Selection Criteria for StudiesRandomized trials with allocation to phosphate binders.InterventionsSevelamer, lanthanum, iron, calcium, colestilan, bixalomer, nicotinic acid, and magnesium.OutcomesThe primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Additional outcomes were cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, adverse events, serum phosphorus and calcium levels, and coronary artery calcification.Results77 trials (12,562 participants) were included. Most (62 trials in 11,009 patients) studies were performed in a dialysis population. Trials were generally of short duration (median, 6 months) and had high risks of bias. All-cause mortality was ascertained in 20 studies during 86,744 patient-months of follow-up. There was no evidence that any drug class lowered mortality or cardiovascular events when compared to placebo. Compared to calcium, sevelamer reduced all-cause mortality (OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.21-0.74), whereas treatment effects of lanthanum, iron, and colestilan were not significant (ORs of 0.78 [95% CI, 0.16-3.72], 0.37 [95% CI, 0.09-1.60], and 0.55 [95% CI, 0.07-4.43], respectively). Lanthanum caused nausea, whereas sevelamer posed the highest risk for constipation and iron caused diarrhea. All phosphate binders lowered serum phosphorus levels to a greater extent than placebo, with iron ranked as the best treatment. Sevelamer and lanthanum posed substantially lower risks for hypercalcemia than calcium.LimitationsLimited testing of consistency; short follow-up.ConclusionsThere is currently no evidence that phosphate-binder treatment reduces mortality compared to placebo in adults with CKD. It is not clear whether the higher mortality with calcium versus sevelamer reflects whether there is net harm associated with calcium, net benefit with sevelamer, both, or neither. Iron-based binders show evidence of greater phosphate lowering that warrants further examination in randomized trials. Guidelines preferentially recommend noncalcium phosphate binders in adults with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We compare and rank phosphate-binder strategies for CKD. Network meta-analysis. Adults with CKD. Randomized trials with allocation to phosphate binders. Sevelamer, lanthanum, iron, calcium, colestilan, bixalomer, nicotinic acid, and magnesium. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Additional outcomes were cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, adverse events, serum phosphorus and calcium levels, and coronary artery calcification. 77 trials (12,562 participants) were included. Most (62 trials in 11,009 patients) studies were performed in a dialysis population. Trials were generally of short duration (median, 6 months) and had high risks of bias. All-cause mortality was ascertained in 20 studies during 86,744 patient-months of follow-up. There was no evidence that any drug class lowered mortality or cardiovascular events when compared to placebo. Compared to calcium, sevelamer reduced all-cause mortality (OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.21-0.74), whereas treatment effects of lanthanum, iron, and colestilan were not significant (ORs of 0.78 [95% CI, 0.16-3.72], 0.37 [95% CI, 0.09-1.60], and 0.55 [95% CI, 0.07-4.43], respectively). Lanthanum caused nausea, whereas sevelamer posed the highest risk for constipation and iron caused diarrhea. All phosphate binders lowered serum phosphorus levels to a greater extent than placebo, with iron ranked as the best treatment. Sevelamer and lanthanum posed substantially lower risks for hypercalcemia than calcium. Limited testing of consistency; short follow-up. There is currently no evidence that phosphate-binder treatment reduces mortality compared to placebo in adults with CKD. It is not clear whether the higher mortality with calcium versus sevelamer reflects whether there is net harm associated with calcium, net benefit with sevelamer, both, or neither. Iron-based binders show evidence of greater phosphate lowering that warrants further examination in randomized trials.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.006 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it