Clinician prediction survival of end stage non-cancer patients
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Objectives: Single, program wide multi-site prospective study examining the (1) accuracy of non-cancer clinician prediction survival (CPS) by palliative practitioners on 1st assessment. (2) Factors affecting CPS; (3) potential impact on clinical care.Design and methods: Single, program wide multi-site prospective study (n = 282). CPS was divided into four clinically relevant time periods (≤2 weeks, >2 to ≤6 weeks, >6 to ≤12 weeks, and >12 weeks). Multivariate analysis was done on six predictor variables.Results: More than ½ of patients died before their clinically relevant predicted time periods (of more than 2 weeks). Only one out of the six predictor variables impacted on clinician accuracy on logistic regression and that being the survival prediction time periods.Conclusion: Non-cancer CPS, even by palliative practitioners, remains overly optimistic. This raises the question in that these individuals may have been potentially over-treated.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".