Spring 2014 Stock Take: Complex Risks Ahead
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This chapter discusses how world economic activity picked up in the second half of 2013 and continued to expand into the first quarter of 2014, showing prospects of improvement in 2014–2015. The IMF had projected global growth to strengthen to 3.6 percent in 2014 and then to nearly 4 percent in 2015 (from 3.1 percent in 2012–2013), with much of the impetus coming from advanced economies. Growth in EMEs will continue to pick up, but only modestly. It may be the result of the confluence of rising export growth in the face of continuing weakness in investment and tightening financial conditions compared with the outlook in October 2013. Since its October 2013 review, the IMF reports that previous overall downside risks have diminished a bit, except for the emerging market risks having taken a turn for the worse, higher risks to activity from below-target inflation, and resurfacing of geopolitical risk.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.006 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.032 | 0.006 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".