Bibliographic record
Abstract
This thesis consists of three essays that contribute empirical macroeconomics. The first essay jointly tests several of the predictions of the intertemporal approach to the current account and one of its implications, the present value model of the current account (PVM). The intertemporal approach to the current account predicts that the current account of a small open economy is independent of.world common disturbances. The PVM predicts that the response of the current account to a country-specific shock depends on the persistence of the shock. This essay combines these predictions to identify a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The identification exploits the orthogonality of the world real interest rate and country-specific shocks as well as the lack of a longrun response of net output to transitory shocks. Estimates of the SVAR show that the Canadian and U.K. data support the intertemporal approach with two puzzling exceptions . A recent study claims that habit formation in consumption improves the ability of the PVM of the current account to predict actual current account movements. The second essay shows that the habit-forming P VM of the current account is observationally equivalent to the canonical PVM augmented with a transitory consumption shock. To resolve the identification problem, this essay constructs a small open economy-real business cycle (SOE-RBC) models with habits and stochastic world real interest rates calibrated to Canadian postwar quarterly data. The results from Monte Carlo experiments reveal that to explain sample moments conditional on the habit-forming and standard PVMs, the SOE-RBC model with stochastic world real interest rates dominates the SOE-RBC model with habit formation. The third essay explores the ability of habit formation in consumption, in the context of the one-sector, closed economy-RBC model,'to account for the U.S. growth rates of consumption and output. Existing studies show that habit formation helps successfully explain the negative response of labour input to a positive, permanent technology shock as well as the empirical puzzles of asset pricing behavior. This essay shows that the RBC model with habit formation fails to mimic not only the persistence of output growth over business cycle frequencies but that of consumption growth at zero frequency as well. Further, the model yields counterfactually low volatility of equity returns.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.022 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.022 | 0.005 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".