Bibliographic record
Abstract
Statistical and probability inferences are basically dependent on two major methods of reasoning, conventional (frequentist) and Bayesian probability. Frequentists’ methods are mainly based on numerous events, where Bayesian probability applies prior knowledge and subjective belief. Frequentist models of probability do not permit the introduction of prior knowledge into the calculations. This is traditionally to maintain the rigour of a scientific method and as way to prevent the introduction of extraneous data that might skew the experimental results. However, there are times when the use of prior knowledge would be a useful contribution to evaluation a situation. The Bayesian approach was proposed to help us reason in situation where prior knowledge is need, and especially under highly uncertain circumstances. This Chapter provides an overview of the main principles underlying the Bayesian method and Bayesian belief networks. The ultimate goal is to provide the reader with the basic knowledge necessary for understanding the Bayesian Belief Network approach to building computational model. The Chapter does not go into more technical details of probability theory and Bayesian statistics. But to make it more accessible to a wide range of readers, some technical details are simplified.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.022 | 0.010 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".