Spectral analysis of four ‘hypervariable’ AGN: a micro-needle in the haystack?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We analyse four extreme active galactic nuclei (AGN) transients to explore the possibility that they are caused by rare, high-amplitude microlensing events. These previously unknown type-I AGN are located in the redshift range 0.6–1.1 and show changes of >1.5 mag in the g band on a time-scale of ∼years. Multi-epoch optical spectroscopy, from the William Herschel Telescope, shows clear differential variability in the broad line fluxes with respect to the continuum changes and also evolution in the line profiles. In two cases, a simple point-source, point-lens microlensing model provides an excellent match to the long-term variability seen in these objects. For both models, the parameter constraints are consistent with the microlensing being due to an intervening stellar mass object but as yet there is no confirmation of the presence of an intervening galaxy. The models predict a peak amplification of 10.3/13.5 and an Einstein time-scale of 7.5/10.8 yr, respectively. In one case, the data also allow constraints on the size of the C iii] emitting region, with some simplifying assumptions, to be ∼1.0–6.5 light-days and a lower limit on the size of the Mg ii emitting region to be >9 light-days (half-light radii). This C iii] radius is perhaps surprisingly small. In the remaining two objects, there is spectroscopic evidence for an intervening absorber but the extra structure seen in the light curves requires a more complex lensing scenario to adequately explain.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".