Towards a Catholic North America? Projections of Religion in Canada and the US Beyond the Mid-21st Century
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Religion and religiosity are important identity markers, and changes in a countryâs religiouscomposition may affect its culture, value orientations and policies. In recent decades theProtestants in both the US and Canada have lost their absolute population majority. In thepresent study we investigate the future of the religious composition in both the US and Canadajointly until the 2060s taking into consideration changes due to demographic forces, the leveland composition of migration, fertility differentials and intergenerational religioustransmissions. The joint focus on both the US and Canada allows one to better understand thecommonalities and differences between these two nations which are tightly knit in terms ofgeography, politics, economics and culture. The projections reveal that North America shouldnot become Catholic by mid-century but close to, with an increasing importance of minoritiesin the religious landscape.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".