Comparing Eyewitness-Derived Trajectories of Bright Meteors to Ground Truth Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The NASA Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) is the only US government agency tasked with analyzing meteors of public interest. When queried about a meteor observed over the United States, the MEO must respond with a characterization of the trajectory, orbit, and size within a few hours. Using observations from meteor networks like the NASA All Sky Fireball Network or the Southern Ontario Meteor Network, such a characterization is often easy. If found, casual recordings from the public and stationary web cameras can be used to roughly analyze a meteor if the camera's location can be identified and its imagery calibrated. This technique was used with great success in the analysis of the Chelyabinsk meteorite fall. But if the event is outside meteor network coverage, if an insufficient number of videos are found, or if the imagery cannot be geolocated or calibrated, a timely assessment can be difficult if not impossible. In this situation, visual reports made by eyewitnesses may be the only resource available. This has led to the development of a tool to quickly calculate crude meteor trajectories from eyewitness reports made to the American Meteor Society. The output is illustrated in Figure 1. A description of the tool, example case studies, and a comparison to ground truth data observed by the NASA All Sky Fireball Network will be presented.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".