Intelligent Soft Computing Models in Water Demand Forecasting
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Given the increasing trend in water scarcity, which threatens a number of regions worldwide, governments and water distribution system (WDS) operators have sought accurate methods of estimating water demands. While investigators have proposed stochastic and deterministic techniques to model water demands in urban WDS, the performance of soft computing techniques [e.g., Genetic Expression Programming (GEP)] and machine learning methods [e.g., Support Vector Machines (SVM)] in this endeavour remains to be evaluated. The present study proposed a new rationale and a novel technique in forecasting water demand. Phase space reconstruction was used to feed the determinants of water demand with proper lag times, followed by development of GEP and SVM models. The relative accuracy of the three best models was evaluated on the basis of performance indices: coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square of error (RMSE), and Nash-Sutcliff coefficient (E). Results showed GEP models were highly sensitive to data classification, genetic operators, and optimum lag time. The SVM model that implemented a Polynomial kernel function slightly outperformed the GEP models. This study showed how phase space reconstruction could potentially improve water demand forecasts using soft computing techniques.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it