Will summer fallow re-emerge in the Dark Brown soil zone of the Canadian Prairie as a response to net return risk?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We assessed the extent to which summer fallow in the Dark Brown soil zone is likely to return as a response to net return (NR) risk. An economic model was used to identify, delineate, and quantify the effects of changes in product prices and input costs on the long-term economic performance of cereal, legume forage, and legume green manure rotations, based on a long-term study at the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Lethbridge Research and Development Centre in Lethbridge, Alberta. The analysis determined NR from the rotations and simulated NR in a stochastic risk model. Each rotation had a different yield distribution and cost profile. The NR risk for the rotations was evaluated using stochastic efficiency with respect to a function. A risk-free return was computed to rank the rotations. Continuous fertilized wheat was the most profitable crop rotation, followed by three-year rotations with fallow and either nitrogen fertilized wheat or livestock manure applied after fallow. Rotations with higher NR used less fallow but had higher risk. Summer fallow is unlikely to re-emerge as only rather risk averse and very risk averse growers would use summer fallow as a means of reducing NR risk.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".