Bilan d’activité du centre de traitement Ebola de Forécariah (Guinée) du 23 avril au 5 juin 2015 : analyse et réflexions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The register of activity at the Ebola Treatment Center (ETC) in Forecariah (Guinea), from April 23 to June 5, 2015 is presented for analysis. The viral load of each patient is evaluated by the cycle threshold (Ct). One hundred and thirty patients were seen in Triage at the ETC, of which 24 (18.5%) patients who failed to meet theWHO case criteria for viral hemorrhagic fever were excluded from admission to the ETC. Of the 106 patients admitted in the ETC, 72 (67.9%) were declared non-cases after the results of their two PCR (drawn 48 hours apart) tests were negative. Thirty-four patients were tested positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD): 19 women and 15 men (sex ratio: male/female = 0.78), mean age of 33.51 ± 20.1 years (extremes of 42 days to 70 years), of which six children were aged below 8 years. The median initial Ct value was 21.6 ± 6.3 cycles in this group. Enquiry into patient contacts was only able to identify actual contacts in 20 of these patients (58.8%). Thirteen patients were ultimately cured of EVD (six men and seven women) - with a median age of 31.8 years (extremes of 4 to 54 years). These patients presented on admission with a median Ct value of 21.88 ± 6.2 cycles (extremes of 17.6 to 31.7). Of the six children aged below 8 years, only one survived. Twenty-one patients (61.76%) with EVD died (9 men and 12 women) - median age, 34 ± 21 years (extremes of 42 days to 70 years). They presented on admission with a median Ct value of 18 ± 7 cycles (extremes of 12 to 24). The single most important factor associated with lethality was the Ct value at the time of admission to the ETC (P = 0.0004), i.e., the lower the Ct value, the higher the lethality rate or simply stated, the higher the viral load, the greater the lethality. Age, sex, identification of contact, and delay between the onset of symptoms and admission did not prove to be predictive of death outcome in our series.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".