H l OW many people will there be in the world in the next generation? How will
Bibliographic record
Abstract
crease is nearly at an end; indeed, a period of decrease may be approaching. In the rising phase the dominant influence was the increase in the expectation of life that accompanied the improvement in living conditions and in medical care after the agricultural and industrial revolutions of the late eighteenth century. In the falling phase the dominant influence has been a decrease in the average number of births per family, a decrease that became evident in Western Europe in the last quarter of the nineteenth century. There are obvious limits to the possible increase in the expectation of life, and whether the fall in fertility will be arrested before the reproduction rate dips very far below the replacement level remains to be seen.2 The present indications are that the populations of most of the countries of Northern, Western, and Central Europe, Australia, and New Zealand may be in a period of decline in 1970; those of the United States, Canada, and South Africa (whites), in a period of stability approaching decline; those of Southern and Eastern Europe, in a period of markedly slackening increase; and that of the U.S.S.R., still in a period of rapid, though also
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.041 | 0.011 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".