Some models for epidemics of vector-transmitted diseases
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Vector-transmitted diseases such as dengue fever and chikungunya have been spreading rapidly in many parts of the world. The Zika virus has been known since 1947 and invaded South America in 2013. It can be transmitted not only by (mosquito) vectors but also directly through sexual contact. Zika has developed into a serious global health problem because, while most cases are asymptomatic or very light, babies born to Zika - infected mothers may develop microcephaly and other very serious birth defects. We formulate and analyze two epidemic models for vector-transmitted diseases, one appropriate for dengue and chikungunya fever outbreaks and one that includes direct transmission appropriate for Zika virus outbreaks. This is especially important because the Zika virus is the first example of a disease that can be spread both indirectly through a vector and directly (through sexual contact). In both cases, we obtain expressions for the basic reproduction number and show how to use the initial exponential growth rate to estimate the basic reproduction number. However, for the model that includes direct transmission some additional data would be needed to identify the fraction of cases transmitted directly. Data for the 2015 Zika virus outbreak in Barranquilla, Colombia has been used to fit parameters to the model developed here and to estimate the basic reproduction number.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it