Influence of delay to diagnosis on prognostic indicators of screen‐detected breast carcinoma
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Although delay to diagnosis after a breast screening abnormality causes anxiety, its effect on prognosis is unknown. METHODS: Using pooled data from five Canadian organized breast cancer screening programs, the authors used unconditional logistic regression to evaluate the effect of delay to diagnosis on prognostic indicators among 4465 women with invasive breast carcinoma diagnosed in the ipsilateral breast within 3 years of an abnormal screen performed during 1990-1996. RESULTS: Women with high-suspicion screens (n = 1569) compared with those without (n = 2896) were more promptly investigated (median days from screen to diagnosis, 31 vs. 47; P < or = 0.0001), had larger tumors (79.4% vs. 55.9% > 10 mm; P < or = 0.0001), and were more likely to be lymph node positive (33.9% vs. 17.3%; P < or = 0.0001). For delays beyond > 12 to < or = 20 weeks, a linear trend of increased tumor size and lymph node positivity began to emerge. Controlling for suspicion, the authors found that odds ratios for tumor size greater than 10 mm were 0.9 (95% CI, 0.66-1.17), 1.2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.88-1.56), 1.5 (95% CI, 1.05-2.16), and 2.1 (95% CI, 1.15-3.86) for delays of > 12 to < or = 20, > 20 to < or = 52, > 52 to < or = 104, and > 104 < or = 156 weeks, respectively (p(trend) < or = 0.0001), compared with delays of > 4 to < or = 12 weeks. Similarly, odds ratios for lymph node metastasis were 1.0 (95% CI, 0.67-1.42), 1.2 (95% CI, 0.84-1.69), 2.2 (95% CI, 1.48-3.15), and 3.2 (95% CI, 1.84-5.55) for the same time intervals (p(trend) = 0.0033). CONCLUSIONS: The authors' findings suggest that delays to diagnosis of asymptomatic breast carcinoma of 6 to 12 months are associated with progression of breast carcinoma as measured by increasing risk of lymph node metastases and larger tumor size. A policy of early recall rather than biopsy for low suspicion mammographic abnormalities may introduce delays of this magnitude. The tendency to more expediently investigate women with high-suspicion, worse prognosis screens (suspicion bias) obscures whether delays shorter than 20 weeks also worsen prognostic indicators. Suspicion bias should be considered when interpreting the effect of delay on prognosis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".