The latitudinal variation of geoelectromagnetic disturbances during large (<i>Dst</i>≤−100 nT) geomagnetic storms
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Geoelectromagnetic disturbances (GMDs) are an important consequence of space weather that can directly impact many types of terrestrial infrastructure. In this paper, we analyze 30 years of SuperMAG magnetometer data from the range of magnetic latitudes 20°≤ λ ≤75° to derive characteristic latitudinal profiles for median GMD amplitudes. Based on this data, we obtain a parameterization of these latitudinal profiles of different types of GMDs, providing an analytical fit with D s t ‐dependent parameters. We also obtain probabilistic estimates for the magnitudes of “100 year” GMDs, finding that = 6.9 (3.60–12.9) nT/s should be expected at 45°≤ λ < 50°, exceeding the 5 nT/s threshold for dangerous inductive heating.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it