Poroelastic stress triggering of the December 2013 Crooked Lake, Alberta, induced seismicity sequence
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The Crooked Lake area in Central Alberta, Canada, became seismically active in December 2013 with a sequence of earthquakes M w 2.0 and higher. The earthquakes are suspected to be induced by hydraulic fracturing in nearby horizontal wells due to their strong spatiotemporal correlation. To investigate the physical mechanism of the induced seismicity near Crooked Lake, we calculate stress and pore pressure perturbations resulting from high‐rate multistage fluid injection in the framework of linear poroelasticity. The calculated perturbations are used for seismic risk analysis based on the Coulomb failure criterion. Results show that most seismicity is within a positive Coulomb stress change regime, indicating that failure is promoted by injection of fluid. By comparing Coulomb stress results for different parameter settings, we show that elastic response of the solid matrix, instead of fluid diffusion, is more likely the dominant factor for the induced earthquakes shortly after fluid injection.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it