Using fossil midges from Saltspring Island, British Columbia to infer changes in temperature over the last 14,000 years
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Fossil midge remains from a sediment core from Lake Stowell, Saltspring Island (48°46’54”N, 123°26’38”W) were used to produce quantitative estimates of mean July air temperature over the last 14,000 years. Chironomid and Chaoborus remains were identified, and multiple models of past temperatures based on transfer functions of northern North American calibration datasets were evaluated. The selected model was used to create the first quantitative paleotemperature estimates for the Gulf Islands region. Inferred paleotemperatures at Lake Stowell varied between 12.1 °C and 18.6 °C over the last 14,000 calendar years. Several major climate phases were identified based on changes in paleotemperature. The base of the record is characterised by a cool lateglacial interval with a minimum inferred July temperature of 12.1 °C. Inferred temperatures generally increased by ~4 °C between ~14,200 and 10,300 cal yr BP but this warming was interrupted by cooling, coincident with the Younger Dryas Chronozone, when inferred temperatures drop ~2 °C from the temperatures immediately preceding this interval. A warm early Holocene extends from ~10,300 to 8100 cal yr BP with temperatures regularly exceeding 16 °C. Following the early Holocene, inferred temperatures decreased to approximately 14.9 °C in the mid-Holocene. After a brief warm peak in the late Holocene, inferred temperatures cooled towards the present. Inferred changes in paleotemperature from Lake Stowell are consistent with other paleoenvironmental studies conducted in southern British Columbia and throughout much of the Northern Hemisphere. Temperature changes at Lake Stowell are muted in comparison to continental sites, which may be due to the influence of marine conditions. This research provides context for other studies in the region, and contributes to our understanding of environmental change since the last glacial maximum.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".