A Nonparametric Approach for Mild Cognitive Impairment to AD Conversion Prediction: Results on Longitudinal Data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The goal of this study is to introduce a nonparametric technique for predicting conversion from Mild Cognitive impairment (MCI)-to-Alzheimer's disease (AD). Progression of a slowly progressing disease such as AD benefits from the use of longitudinal data; however, research till now is limited due to the insufficient patient data and short follow-up time. A small dataset size invalidates the estimation of underlying disease progression model; hence, a supervised nonparametric method is proposed. While depicting a real-world setting, longitudinal data of three years are employed for training, whereas only the baseline visit's data is used for validation. The train set is preprocessed for extraction of two dense clusters representing the subjects who remain stable at MCI or progress to AD after three years of the baseline visit. Similarity between these clusters and the test point is calculated in Euclidean space. Multiple features from two modalities of biomarkers, i.e., neuropsychological measures (NM) and structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) morphometry are also analyzed. Due to the limited MCI dataset size (NM: 145, MRI: 52, NM+MRI: 29), leave-one-out cross validation setup is employed for performance evaluation. The algorithm performance is noted for both unimodal case and bimodal cases. Superior performance (accuracy: 89.66%, sensitivity: 87.50%, specificity: 92.31%, precision: 93.33%) is delivered by multivariate predictors. Three notable conclusions of this study are: 1) Longitudinal data are more powerful than the temporal data, 2) MRI is a better predictor of MCI-to-AD conversion than NM, and 3) multivariate predictors outperform single predictor models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.010 | 0.018 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".