Exploring the Inflammatory Metabolomic Profile to Predict Response to TNF-α Inhibitors in Rheumatoid Arthritis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In clinical practice, approximately one-third of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) respond insufficiently to TNF-α inhibitors (TNFis). The aim of the study was to explore the use of a metabolomics to identify predictors for the outcome of TNFi therapy, and study the metabolomic fingerprint in active RA irrespective of patients' response. In the metabolomic profiling, lipids, oxylipins, and amines were measured in serum samples of RA patients from the observational BiOCURA cohort, before start of biological treatment. Multivariable logistic regression models were established to identify predictors for good- and non-response in patients receiving TNFi (n = 124). The added value of metabolites over prediction using clinical parameters only was determined by comparing the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), sensitivity, specificity, positive- and negative predictive value and by the net reclassification index (NRI). The models were further validated by 10-fold cross validation and tested on the complete TNFi treatment cohort including moderate responders. Additionally, metabolites were identified that cross-sectionally associated with the RA disease activity score based on a 28-joint count (DAS28), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) or C-reactive protein (CRP). Out of 139 metabolites, the best-performing predictors were sn1-LPC(18:3-ω3/ω6), sn1-LPC(15:0), ethanolamine, and lysine. The model that combined the selected metabolites with clinical parameters showed a significant larger AUC-ROC than that of the model containing only clinical parameters (p = 0.01). The combined model was able to discriminate good- and non-responders with good accuracy and to reclassify non-responders with an improvement of 30% (total NRI = 0.23) and showed a prediction error of 0.27. For the complete TNFi cohort, the NRI was 0.22. In addition, 88 metabolites were associated with DAS28, ESR or CRP (p<0.05). Our study established an accurate prediction model for response to TNFi therapy, containing metabolites and clinical parameters. Associations between metabolites and disease activity may help elucidate additional pathologic mechanisms behind RA.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".