Dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Output Growth: The Case of Malawi
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper investigates the temporal causality and dynamics of real exchange rate, inflation, and output growth in Malawi, controlling for monetary growth and foreign exchange accumulation. The relationships among these variables are examined using quarterly data and the bounds testing approach to cointegration analysis. A long run relationship among the variables is observed, with the real exchange rate as the dependent variable, which is found responsive, in the long run, to the growth rate of output but not to inflation. Analysis of short-run dynamics reveals that the real exchange rate was influenced by output growth and inflation. The Granger causality analysis in a multivariate setting points to causation running from the real exchange rate to inflation and from each of these to output growth. The lagged error correction term, where included, emerged significant, providing evidence for the presence of long-run causality running interactively through it from the other variables as a group to the real exchange rate. Taken together, the results indicate the relevance of domestic economic activity, monetary policy, and foreign exchange availability for the evolution of the real exchange rate, which, in turn, is observed to have played a role in influencing domestic inflation and output growth in Malawi.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".