Bibliographic record
Abstract
Dr. Simos is Director of Forecasting at e-forecasting.com, a division of Infometrica's Data Center, 65 Newmarket Road, Durham, NH 03824, U.S.A., www.infometrica.com, eosimos@e-forecasting.com. This report does not purport to be a complete description of global economic conditions and financial markets. Neither the Journal nor Infometrica, Inc. guarantee the accuracy of the projections, nor do they warrant in any way that the use of information or data appearing herein will enhance operational or investment performance of individuals or companies who use it. The views presented here are those of the author, and in noway represent the views, analysis, or models of Infometrica, Inc. and any organization that the author may be associated with. I. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOK Fiscal austerity, after a spending spree generating ballooning and inept monetary policy, has continued to increase downside risks to economic growth in industrial countries. Consumers and businesses have lost confidence thus weakening demand for resources and goods, evidenced by a lack of expansionary investment, hiring, and levels of consumer sentiment that were associated in the past with war times and depression. Central banks are buying - using printing machines - whatever is worthless in the balance sheets of failed financial institutions. To add further uncertainty to the markets, central banks announce near-zero rate policies for several years, thus signaling to markets that stagnation is not transitory but it will be alive and kicking for many years. Following anemic growth in real output by an annual rate of 1.2% in the first quarter of 2011, preliminary data on the second quarter shows that the combined output of the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) - the 34 richest economies in the world - slowed to 0.8% annual growth from the previous quarter. Checking up on the major economies, real output edged up 1% in the United States and 0.8% in both the Euro Area and the United Kingdom. Within the Euro Area, real output rose in Germany by 0.4%, compared with 5.2% in the first quarter, and growth completely stalled in France, compared with 3.6% in the first quarter. Real output declined in Canada and Japan by 0.4% and 1.3%, respectively. Looking at high-frequency indicators, e-forecasting's global leading economic index suggests that the worldwide expansion may end in the last quarter of 2011. The forward-looking global leading index - a composite index of 37 countrywide leading indicators tracking economic conditions five to six months in advance - declined in June for the fifth consecutive month. In addition, the indicator's six-month annual growth rate - designed to provide early signals of changing directions in global economic activity between expansions and slowdowns - registered for the first time in the recent cycle a negative reading, after a steady deceleration from a growth rate of 15.1% in November of 2009 to the latest 0.2% decline in June of 201 1 . The signals from e-forecasting's country leading indicators display a change in direction of growth in all economic blocs from North America to Latin America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. In particular, the combined leading indicator of the high-flying emerging nations of the BRIC group - Brazil, Russia, India, and China - declined in June for the third month in a row. In the past three quarters, we have trimmed our global forecasts for this year and next following the elevation of downside risks. We now forecast global economic growth to decelerate to 3.5% this year and 3.4% in 2012 compared with a worldwide growth of 5% in 2010. Given weakening demand, global inflation is forecast to average 4.8% this year, compared to our 4.6% projection made in the previous quarter. II. SHORT-TERM INDICATORS AND FORECASTS The baseline forecast incorporates major findings of the World Economic Survey conducted in the third quarter of 201 1 by the German lfo Institute and the Parisbased International Chamber of Commerce. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".