The epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal disease in older adults from 2007 to 2014 in Ontario, Canada: a population-based study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
<h3>Background:</h3> In Ontario, pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been sequentially introduced into the publicly funded childhood vaccination program since 2005. A 23-valent polysaccharide pneumococcal vaccine (PPV23) has been routinely recommended for adults aged 65 years and older since 1996. To determine the effect of herd immunity, we examined the epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal disease in adults aged 65 years and older. <h3>Methods:</h3> Invasive pneumococcal disease is a provincially reportable disease. We were therefore able to conduct a descriptive epidemiologic analysis that included assessing time trends for patients aged 65 years and older using surveillance data from 2007 to 2014. Using serotype information within the surveillance data, cases were grouped into categories according to vaccine type and periods and then compared using Poisson regression. <h3>Results:</h3> A total of 3825 cases of invasive pneumococcal disease were reported among adults aged 65 years and older, for an overall annualized incidence of 25.4 cases per 100 000 population. There was a decrease in incidence due to serotypes included in 7-valent PCV (3.0 to 0.7 cases per 100 000 population) (<i>p</i> < 0.001). For 13-valent PCV serotypes, there was a decrease in incidence between 2011 and 2014 (9.8 to 5.3 cases per 100 000 population (<i>p</i> < 0.001)). Serotypes unique to PPV23 and those not included in a vaccine increased from 2.3 to 5.8 and from 2.4 to 7.2 cases per 100 000 population, respectively (<i>p</i> < 0.001). <h3>Interpretation:</h3> In older adults, among serotypes contained in PCVs, we have shown a decrease in incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease. This is likely due to herd immunity from the childhood program. A burden of illness due to unique PPV23 serotypes and those that are not covered by a vaccine exists and has increased over time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".