A Modified Delphi Study to Identify Factors Associated With Clinical Deterioration in Hospitalized Children
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Hospitalized children who are admitted to the inpatient ward can deteriorate and require unplanned transfer to the PICU. Studies designed to validate early warning scoring systems have focused mainly on abnormalities in vital signs in patients admitted to the inpatient ward. The objective of this study was to determine the patient and system factors that experienced clinicians think are associated with progression to critical illness in hospitalized children. METHODS: We conducted a modified Delphi study with 3 iterations, administered electronically. The expert panel consisted of 11 physician and nonphysician health care providers from hospitals in Canada and the United States. RESULTS: Consensus was reached that 21 of the 57 factors presented are associated with clinical deterioration in hospitalized children. The final list of variables includes patient characteristics, signs and symptoms in the emergency department, emergency department management, and system factors. CONCLUSIONS: We generated a list of variables that can be used in future prospective studies to determine if they are predictors of clinical deterioration on the inpatient ward.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".