Hydro-climatic drivers of mid-winter break-up of river ice in western Canada and Alaska
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The mid-winter break-up of a competent river ice cover can cause ice jamming and flooding, which can have profound impacts on the structure and strength of the ice cover. This research identifies 52 mid-winter break-up events in western Canada (1950–2008) and Alaska (1950–2014) and evaluates the hydro-climatic drivers including temperature and precipitation. The identified mid-winter break-up events are primarily located in the temperate zone, defined as the region between 400 and 1,000 winter (December–February) freezing degree-days. Further delineation by terrestrial biome revealed considerable variability in hydro-climatic triggers, particularly the role of freeze-thaw days (Tmax > 0 °C and Tmin < 0 °C) in Tundra and Boreal Forest/Taiga biomes and short-term (3-day) warming events in Temperate Coniferous Forests and Temperate Grasslands, Savannas, and Shrublands. The classification of 5-day sequences of mid-tropospheric circulation indicates that a persistent trough of low-pressure over Alaska and the North Pacific is the dominant pattern preceding mid-winter break-ups. Furthermore, the trough is stronger for events in British Columbia and Alberta compared with Alaska and the Yukon. The results of this research improve our understanding of the hydro-climatic conditions that generate mid-winter break-up events in western Canada and Alaska and will aid in the prediction and risk management of such events.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it