Two sides of a coin: host‐plant synchrony fitness trade‐offs in the population dynamics of the western spruce budworm
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Conifer-feeding budworms emerge from overwintering sites as small larvae in early spring, several days before budburst, and mine old needles. These early-emerging larvae suffer considerable mortality during this foraging period as they disperse in search of available, current-year buds. Once buds flush, surviving budworms construct feeding shelters and must complete maturation before fresh host foliage senesces and lignifies later in the summer. Late-developing larvae suffer greater mortality and survivors have lower fecundity when feeding on older foliage. Thus, there is a seasonal trade-off in fitness associated with host synchrony: early-emerging budworms have a greater risk of mortality during spring dispersal but gain better access to the most nutritious foliage, while, on the other hand, late-emerging larvae incur a lower risk during the initial foraging period but must contend with rapidly diminishing resource quality at the end of the feeding period. We investigate the balance that results from these early-season and late-season synchrony fitness trade-offs using the concept of the phenological window. Parameters associated with the variation in the phenological window are used to estimate generational fitness as a function of host-plant synchrony. Because defoliation modifies these relationships, it is also included in the analysis. We show that fitness trade-offs characterizing the phenological window result in a robust synchrony relationship between budworm and host plant over a wide geographic range in southern British Columbia, Canada.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it