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Record W2529602084 · doi:10.11575/prism/24982

A Predictive Model of Canadian College Student Retention

2014· dissertation· en· W2529602084 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Morgan Blair

Bibliographic record

VenuePRISM (University of Calgary) · 2014
Typedissertation
Languageen
FieldSocial Sciences
TopicHigher Education Research Studies
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPsychologyMathematics education

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Estimates in the literature for within-year retention at 2-year colleges range from 57% to 83.9%. This indicates that a large proportion of students who attend 2-year colleges may not be retained beyond the first semester of their studies. Attrition potentially represents a major loss to the student, to the institution, and to society. With current accountability and funding realities becoming more openly discussed, Canadian colleges may not be able to afford to ignore their high rates of attrition in the future. The focus of this research was to estimate the rate of within-year retention among a sample of students attending two comprehensive community colleges in western Canada, and to develop a predictive model that identified potential determinants of retention among these students. Retention was examined among the total sample, among the sample from each college separately, and among the sample enrolled in each credential type. Astin’s Input-Environment-Output model was used as the framework for this research. The model purports that institutional outputs such as retention must be evaluated in the context of the original student inputs and ongoing environmental factors. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop predictive models of college student retention. The estimated overall retention rate among this sample was 83.6%, although differences were observed by credential type. Among the aggregate sample, two environmental factors - grade point average and credit load - were the strongest predictors of retention once other factors were considered. The predictors of retention differed by credential type. The results indicate that the greatest gains in retention may be realized by strategies aimed at encouraging full-time enrolment and supporting academic achievement. The results of the current study suggest that sub-groups may exist for whom retention is predicted by unique factors. It is important that retention be examined on an institution-by-institution basis. Enhancing our understanding of Canadian college student retention, and taking action to improve retention, may contribute to Canada’s future prosperity in a knowledge economy.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Qualitative · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.518
Threshold uncertainty score0.555

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.021
GPT teacher head0.291
Teacher spread0.269 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designQualitative
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2014
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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