Weighting Primary Care Patient Panel Size: A Novel Electronic Health Record-Derived Measure Using Machine Learning
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Characterizing patient complexity using granular electronic health record (EHR) data regularly available to health systems is necessary to optimize primary care processes at scale. Objective: To characterize the utilization patterns of primary care patients and create weighted panel sizes for providers based on work required to care for patients with different patterns. Methods: We used EHR data over a 2-year period from patients empaneled to primary care clinicians in a single academic health system, including their in-person encounter history and virtual encounters such as telephonic visits, electronic messaging, and care coordination with specialists. Using a combination of decision rules and k-means clustering, we identified clusters of patients with similar health care system activity. Phenotypes with basic demographic information were used to predict future health care utilization using log-linear models. Phenotypes were also used to calculate weighted panel sizes. Results: We identified 7 primary care utilization phenotypes, which were characterized by various combinations of primary care and specialty usage and were deemed clinically distinct by primary care physicians. These phenotypes, combined with age-sex and primary payer variables, predicted future primary care utilization with R2 of .394 and were used to create weighted panel sizes. Conclusions: Individual patients’ health care utilization may be useful for classifying patients by primary care work effort and for predicting future primary care usage.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".