Wintering areas predict age‐related breeding phenology in a migratory passerine bird
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Understanding connections between breeding, stopover and wintering grounds for long‐distance migratory birds can provide important insight into factors influencing demography and the strength of carry‐over effects among various periods of the annual cycle. Using previously described, multi‐isotope (δ 13 C, δ 15 N, δ 2 H) feather isoscapes for Africa, we identified the most probable wintering areas for house martins Delichon urbica breeding at Badajoz in southwestern Spain. We identified two most‐probable wintering areas differing in isotopic signature in west Africa. We found that the probability to winter in the isotopic cluster two was related to age and sex of individuals. Specifically, experienced males (i.e. two years or older) winter in the isotopic cluster two with a greater probability than experienced females, whereas first‐year females winter in the isotopic cluster two with a greater probability than first‐year males. In addition, wintering area was correlated with breeding phenology, with individuals wintering in the isotopic cluster two initiating their clutches earlier than those wintering in the isotopic cluster one. For birds wintering in the isotopic cluster two, there was no relationship between age and clutch initiation date. In contrast, young birds wintering in the isotopic cluster one initiated their clutches earlier than experienced birds wintering in this area. There was no significant correlation between wintering area and clutch size or the number of fledglings produced. We hypothesize that the relationship among social status, population density and winter habitat quality should be the most important driver of the carry‐over effect we found for this population.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".