Accurate prediction of the age incidence of chronic myeloid leukemia with an improved two-mutation mathematical model
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is a malignant clonal disorder whose hallmark is a reciprocal translocation between chromosomes 9 and 22 occurring in 95% of affected patients. This translocation causes the expression of a deregulated BCR/ABL fusion oncogene and, interestingly, is detectable in healthy individuals. Based on this information we assumed that the sole presence of the BCR/ABL transcript represents a necessary but not sufficient event for the clonal expansion of CML precursors. We developed a mathematical model introducing a probability that any normal cell undergoes a first aberration, and a probability that a cell that experienced a first mutation undergoes a second mutation as well. Two variants are proposed and analyzed: in the first the probability of the first mutation is supposed to be age independent and in the second, it depends on the hemopoietic cell turnover and mass. The model parameters have been estimated by regression from the observed CML incidence curves. Our models offer a significantly improved version of existing one-step and two-steps models, as they integrate key clinical and biological data reported in the literature and accurately fit the observed incidence. Our models also estimate the increased radiation-associated mutation rate at a younger age in atomic bomb survivors. Although this work focuses on CML, the modelling approach can be applied to all types of leukemia and lymphoma.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it