Vulnerability, scar, or reciprocal risk? Temporal ordering of self-esteem and depressive symptoms over 25 years
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Three models have been proposed to explain the temporal interrelation between self-esteem and symptoms of depression: vulnerability (self-esteem predicts future depressive symptoms), scar (depressive symptoms predict future self-esteem), and reciprocal risk (self-esteem and depressive symptoms predict each other in the future). This study tested these three models over 25 years in a sample of high school seniors surveyed six times from age 18 to 43 (n = 978) and in a separate sample of university graduates surveyed five times from age 23 to 30 (n = 589). In both samples, autoregressive cross-lagged modeling results were that self-esteem and symptoms of depression prospectively predicted each other at every measurement occasion. Additionally, the cross-lagged association from self-esteem to symptoms of depression and the corresponding link from depressive symptoms to future self-esteem were equally strong. These results provide support for the reciprocal risk model.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".