Bulk power system restoration interdependency risk modeling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The interdependencies that exist within and between infrastructures can cause unexpected system properties to emerge when their components fail due to large disruptions. As witnessed following emergencies such as the North American 2003 Blackout, the complexities of these interdependencies make it very difficult to effectively recover infrastructure because of the challenges they create in prioritizing the most critical components. To study dependencies in electrical bulk power systems, an interdependency model of the British Columbia Transmission Corporation bulk power network and its communications system was developed, along with a post-blackout restoration procedure. Using these, simulations of a post-blackout recovery were carried out to study the level of risk that communications outages may pose to the electrical networkpsilas recovery. These simulations revealed a correlation between restoration time and the number of communication points lost. This research also demonstrated there is value in combining the results of such simulations with risk evaluation tools.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".