Tracking Holocene climate change using peat bog stable isotopes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Stable isotopic analyses of Sphagnum cellulose from four raised peat bog cores in the North Atlantic region are used to reconstruct past variation in the isotopic composition of precipitation. These records are then calibrated using modern relationships for each site between the isotopic composition of precipitation and temperature to derive palaeotemperature estimates through the mid- to late Holocene in Europe and during the widespread cold event ~8200 BP in Newfoundland. The data indicate that through the mid- to late Holocene in Europe, regional scale precipitation-isotopic gradients were generally similar to the present day, although during periods of climatic instability, the amplitude of change increased with distance from the Atlantic Ocean. During the ~8200 BP event in Newfoundland, it is estimated that surface air temperatures decreased by 8.9 ± 3.5 oC between ~8450 and 8360 BP. It is demonstrated that the link between the isotopic composition of precipitation and the signal recorded in Sphagnum moss involves limited isotopic fractionation. The link to palaeotemperature is made difficult for sites in Europe by uncertainty in the relationship between the isotopic composition of precipitation and temperature in the modern day. Variation in Bog Surface Wetness records is highly correlated with variation in the isotopic signal from Sphagnum cellulose, suggesting a common primary driver.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".