Launch and Iterate: Reducing Prediction Churn
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Practical applications of machine learning often involve successive training iterations with changes to features and training examples. Ideally, changes in the output of any new model should only be improvements (wins) over the previous iteration, but in practice the predictions may change neutrally for many examples, resulting in extra net-zero wins and losses, referred to as unnecessary churn. These changes in the predictions are problematic for usability for some applications, and make it harder and more expensive to measure if a change is statistically significant positive. In this paper, we formulate the problem and present a stabilization operator to regularize a classifier towards a previous classifier. We use a Markov chain Monte Carlo stabilization operator to produce a model with more consistent predictions without adversely affecting accuracy. We investigate the properties of the proposal with theoretical analysis. Experiments on benchmark datasets for different classification algorithms demonstrate the method and the resulting reduction in churn.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.010 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it