Dementia Predictors in Parkinson Disease: A Validation Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In a prospective study, we recently discovered 8 clinical predictors of dementia in Parkinson's disease. Here, we validate these dementia predictors using two additional prospective cohorts (n = 134). After a 3.6-year follow-up, 35/134 developed dementia (7.2% per year). When confirming individual variables, 5/8 were significantly associated with dementia in the validation cohort. These included age, male sex, baseline RBD, orthostatic hypotension, and MCI. Bilateral onset, hallucinations and falls/freezing did not significantly predict dementia; however, point estimates of OR were all >1. In all cohorts, the strongest determinant for dementia development was the co-existence of RBD, MCI and orthostatic hypotension at baseline.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".