BUSINESS SURVEY LIQUIDITY MEASURE AS A LEADING INDICATOR OF CROATIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Business survey liquidity measure is one of the modifications of the uniform EU business survey methodology applied in Croatia. Consequent liquidity problem have been, since socialist times, one of the major problem for Croatia's business. The problem rapidly increased between 1995 and 2000 and now it again represents the main difficulty for the Croatian economy. In order to improve the forecasting properties of business survey liquidity measure, some econometric models ware applied. Based on the regression analysis we concluded that the changes in the liquidity variable can predict the direction of changes in industrial production with one quarter lead. The results also show that liquidity can be a proxy of the Industrial Confidence Indicator in the observed period. The empirical analysis was performed using quarterly data covering the period from the first quarter 2005 to the fourth quarter 2011. The data sources were Privredni vjesnik (a business magazine in Croatia) and the Croatian Bureau of Statistics.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".