'And Yet, It Moves': Intergenerational Economic Mobility in Italy
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper provides the first comprehensive measurement for Italy of the degree of intergenerational economic mobility (IEM). The empirical analysis is based on unique tax record data for a 10 percent sample of the Italian tax payers (over 2M observations) where one can link the SSN of parents in 1998-1999 to the SSN of their children roughly 15 years later. We report a number of different measures of IEM such as the intergenerational elasticity, the rank-rank relationship, and upward and downward directional rank mobility. We document how these measures vary geographically across regions and across family types. We compare our methodology with the `informational content of surnames' approach developed by Guell and Rodriguez-Mora and recently applied to Italian data. We demonstrate that, geographically, IEM is strongly correlated to a number of socio-economic indicators, in particularly quality of public schooling. Finally, we compare our estimates of intergenerational income mobility with estimates using the same methodology for the U.S., Canada, Sweden, and Denmark.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".