Variations in tropical cyclone frequency response to solar and CO<sub>2</sub> forcing in aquaplanet simulations
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The response of global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency to solar and carbon dioxide radiative forcing is examined in TC‐permitting aquaplanet general circulation model simulations. With an energetically consistent slab ocean lower boundary condition, the simulations show a larger response to positive radiative forcing from increased carbon dioxide than a solar constant increase with a comparable global‐mean radiative forcing. Prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) simulations reveal that both the direct response to radiative forcing (radiative forcing with unchanged SST) and the patterned‐SST response vary between forcing agents. The forcing‐agent dependence of the patterned‐SST response of TC frequency can be accounted for by the variation in simulated intertropical convergence zone shifts. The forcing‐agent dependence of the direct response of TC frequency to radiative forcing can be accounted for by the variation in direct circulation changes and in normalized moist static energy deficit changes. That the direct TC response differs across forcing agents suggests that solar radiation manipulation geoengineering schemes will not return TC frequency to that of an unperturbed climate.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it