Sign changes as a universal concept in first-passage-time calculations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
First-passage-time problems are ubiquitous across many fields of study, including transport processes in semiconductors and biological synapses, evolutionary game theory and percolation. Despite their prominence, first-passage-time calculations have proven to be particularly challenging. Analytical results to date have often been obtained under strong conditions, leaving most of the exploration of first-passage-time problems to direct numerical computations. Here we present an analytical approach that allows the derivation of first-passage-time distributions for the wide class of nondifferentiable Gaussian processes. We demonstrate that the concept of sign changes naturally generalizes the common practice of counting crossings to determine first-passage events. Our method works across a wide range of time-dependent boundaries and noise strengths, thus alleviating common hurdles in first-passage-time calculations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".