Sign changes as a universal concept in first-passage-time calculations
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
First-passage-time problems are ubiquitous across many fields of study, including transport processes in semiconductors and biological synapses, evolutionary game theory and percolation. Despite their prominence, first-passage-time calculations have proven to be particularly challenging. Analytical results to date have often been obtained under strong conditions, leaving most of the exploration of first-passage-time problems to direct numerical computations. Here we present an analytical approach that allows the derivation of first-passage-time distributions for the wide class of nondifferentiable Gaussian processes. We demonstrate that the concept of sign changes naturally generalizes the common practice of counting crossings to determine first-passage events. Our method works across a wide range of time-dependent boundaries and noise strengths, thus alleviating common hurdles in first-passage-time calculations.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it