Observation of a <i>p</i> < 10<sup>–9</sup> life-history event: implications of record-late caribou birth on ungulate reproductive ecology and field studies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Life-history traits in temperate ungulates are highly seasonal, with events corresponding to the seasonal availability of resources. An important example is birth date, with later-born individuals typically having reduced survival compared with those born earlier in the season. Ungulates, especially those whose offspring are at their mother’s heel soon after birth, are typically born in a narrow window of time in late May–early June. In Newfoundland, mean birth date in caribou (Rangifer tarandus (L., 1758); n = 1175) was 31 May. Here, we document a sighting of a caribou calf born ∼25 July on Fogo Island, Newfoundland (∼55 days after the mean birth date). Calving date was estimated using movement rate of the mother and validated by visual observations of the mother. We discuss the implications of this finding as it pertains to caribou ecology, and suggest that studies of ungulate birth date should ensure that observations are continued well past the initial birth pulse to guarantee that a complete picture of ungulate breeding ecology be maintained.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".