Efficient tracking of large classes of experts
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the framework of prediction with expert advice we consider prediction algorithms that compete against a class of switching strategies that can segment a given sequence into several blocks and follow the advice of a different “base” expert in each block. The performance is measured by the regret defined as the excess loss relative to the best switching strategy selected in hindsight. Our goal is to construct low-complexity prediction algorithms for the case where the set of base experts is large. In particular, starting with an arbitrary prediction algorithm A designed for the base expert class, we derive a family of efficient tracking algorithms that can be implemented with time and space complexity only O(η <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">γ</sup> In n) times larger than that of A, where n is the time horizon and γ ≥ 0 is a parameter of the algorithm. With A properly chosen, our algorithm achieves a regret bound of optimal order for γ >; 0, and only O(ln n) times larger than the optimal order for γ = 0 for all typical regret bound types we examined. For example, for predicting binary sequences with switching parameters, our method achieves the optimal O(ln n) regret rate with time complexity O(n <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">1+γ</sup> In n) for any γ ϵ (0,1).
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it