Simulating future climate impacts on tropical fisheries: are contemporary spatial fishery management strategies sufficient?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We demonstrated a possible future wherein coral reefs shift to an algae-dominated state that retains low coral cover and a functional biomass of herbivorous fishes that sustains a reef fish fishery. We evaluate the effect of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) and increased coastal nutrients under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate scenarios for years 2000–2100, which are implemented as coral bleaching events. Coral mortality from bleaching events drove a lagged increase in herbivorous fish populations via a shift from coral-dominated to algae-dominated habitats. Biomass and catch of piscivorous fish declined significantly, with the fishery shifting to the harvest of herbivorous fish. No-take MPAs for 20% of reef areas represented a threshold that had a positive effect on herbivorous fishes but no influence on the steep declines of corals and piscivorous fishes. Contemporary no-take MPAs protect less than 1% of coral reef areas around the Hawaiian Islands; substantial management action would be required to approach the 20% area threshold.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".